Black Swans

Have you ever laid eyes on a black swan? Well, unless you're living in Australia or New Zealand, chances are you haven't had the pleasure. And let's be honest, these black-feathered friends are a bit like the hidden gems of the avian world. But hey, I'm not here to give you a lesson on this unique bird. Instead, let's dive into the interesting concept of a "Black Swan" event that recently caught my attention. Author Nassim Taleb explores the idea of “Black Swan” events in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

So, what exactly is a "Black Swan" event, you ask? It's a rare event of enormous consequence that can’t be predicted or calculated for. Think of 9/11. Taleb identifies three key characteristics of Black Swan events:

1. The events are unpredictable.
2. The event has widespread impact.
3. After the event, people suddenly claim it was predictable.

There are two kinds of Black Swan events - positive and negative. But just because they're unpredictable doesn't mean we can't make the most of them. A positive “Black Swan” is an event that brings considerable benefits to people after the occurrence. Examples include striking gold with angel investing, writing a bestseller, or releasing a chart-topping hit. While the odds may be slim, the rewards are extraordinary. In contrast, a negative “Black Swan” is one where the unexpected event can deal a severe blow. Take Military Service, or dare I say, the volatile world of crypto.

To be successful, we should aim to expose ourselves to positive Black Swan events—the kind where the upside far outweighs the downside. In essence, we're talking about waiting for good luck to knock on your door. Taleb offers us some sage advice on how to increase our chances of stumbling upon these opportunities:

1. Identify places where unpredictability is very beneficial.
2. Keep your mind open to all opportunities.
3. Seize any opportunity that looks like one.

So, keep your eyes peeled for those positive Black Swan opportunities. Say yes to that dinner invite, live in a big city, go on many first dates, start the business, or pen that book you've been dreaming of. In this whirlwind of unpredictability, you just might catch the tailwind of a rare and glorious event.